Michael is expected to move northward due to a ridge that had been over the SE United States shifting east into the Atlantic and a trough out west moving into the Central Plains states. The trough will continue to move eastward and Michael will eventually turn northeastward by mid week.

The water in the Gulf is very warm and the wind shear should relax some, and Michael will be strengthening up until its landfall point. Right now, it appears most likely that Michael's center landfall will be somewhere along the Panhandle likely within a relatively short distance of Appalachicola very likely as a major hurricane.

 

I hope everyone stays safe.

 

Looks like Apalacicola is in for up to a 13' storm surge just before high tide, parts of the town are less than 13' above sealevel.

 

With my luck, it'll turn and hit us here in the Southwest..... Jesus, we've been dodging thunderstorms this whole road trip. It even snowed here in Arizona the other night. I had to pick my wood up off the cold hard ground..

 

Looks like Michael is up to a Category 4 and still strengthening. That's 130 - 156 mph winds {latest 145 mph).

"Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."

From https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

 

Can’t wait to hear what the armageddonists think about this~

“An obvious wavenumber 5 pattern has developed within the eyewall, with the points representing mesovortices rotating cyclonically around. These features can locally enhance winds in the eyewall.
These features occur due to the horizontal shear b/w the light winds in the eye vs. the high winds in the eyewall. This induces barotropic instability breaking down the eyewall vorticity ring into multiple eddies.“

Which means it ends up looking like this:



Devil’s comin’.

For real though, even the pros are wigged out about how this has progressed. Be safe, everyone.

View attachment

 

I have to agree with those who are saying this one is different. And one of the biggest differences is how fast it formed. The people in the path of Florence had about a couple weeks to get ready. Michael formed in about 48. Most hurricanes weaken as they approach land. Michael went from cat 3 to cat 4 overnight. And something that caught my attention this morning was a buoy in the Gulf recorded a 30 foot wave. Which as they pointed out is something you might see in movies but not in real life.

 

Hurricane Michael's winds are up to 150 mph. just short of a category 5. the Eye is about to make landfall at Panama City.

 

*not_secure_link*images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/mra101018dapr.jpg?resize=807x807

 

It will be a sad and tragic event, but a great public service when one or more of those news crews covering a hurricane gets wiped out.

And since they all try to out do each other for ratings I think it is only a matter of time.

Because they have always set a terrible example of telling everyone else to evacuate but stay themselves. And some people look at that and think if they're not leaving why should I?

 

I just mentioned this same scnerio to my neighbor about 30 minutes ago. There is no reason for those newscasters to be standing out in the middle of an almost Cat 5 hurricane.

 

And they just did an extended interview with a guy who rode it out with his wife who in nine months pregnant. It was just a ride it out infomercial.

Also I am hearing this might be upgraded to cat 5 once they survey the damage.

 

We have several boating friends in the Panama City area, only one got his boat over to Bay St Louis, The others secured them as best the could and drove over to join him. Going to be a lot of damage,

 

One thing from watching the news coverage is you do get a sense of just how fast this hurricane is traveling compared to the average speed. But you don't need fool reporters to tell you that. That is apparent on the maps.

Oh the other hand though Michael is well over land and still close to a cat 4.

 

Reports are Michael came ashore with winds of 155 mph, just 2 mph short of a Category 5...

 

Thank heavens climate change isn't real...

Hush....an alias

 

Please treat Michael with respect!

Thinskin

 

Michael has finally backed off to cat 3.

 

I think it would be so cool if they were to name a hurricane after me

 

Heh, funny. My name is Michael.